FRAMELORE ORACLE · CALIBRATION LEDGER
A forecast is only worth the record it is willing to show. This is that record: every fixture measured against what actually happened, kept in public from the first entry, with the miss included as evidence rather than hidden.
Six fixtures is not a track record. It is the beginning of one, published from the start rather than assembled after it looked good. Entries are permanent: never deleted, never quietly revised. Oracle has not yet published a DECLINE on a real film. When it does, it goes here at the same size as the wins.
| FILM | PREDICTED BAND + MULTIPLE | REALIZED OUTCOME | RESULT | ANNOTATION |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past Lives2023 · S6-MATCH-7 | RECOMMEND2.04x | ~1.1x MOIC PROXY | IN BAND | Critical hit, modest theatrical profit; reality landed at the band's lower rail, not the P50. |
| Anatomy of a Fall2023 · S6-MATCH-7 | RECOMMEND2.52x | ~2.1x MOIC PROXY | IN BAND | Closest P50-to-realized fit in the set. |
| The Holdovers2023 · S6-MATCH-7 | RECOMMEND2.13x | ~1.2x MOIC PROXY | IN BAND | Reception nailed; money landed at the conservative edge of the band. |
| Everything Everywhere All at Once2022 · S6-MATCH-7 | RECOMMEND2.35x | ~2.5x MOIC PROXY | IN BAND | In band on the convention figure: 2.5x, inside the 1.11x to 3.77x rail. The raw gross multiple on this title runs far above that, but Oracle deliberately does not model tail breakouts, so a runaway reads here as an undercall rather than a hit. |
| Hereditary2018 · S6-MATCH-8 | CONSIDER2.45x | ~3.21x MOIC PROXY | IN BAND | Band held on the conservative side: the engine underestimated the outcome rather than overselling it. |
| Empire of Light2022 · S6-MATCH-7 · THE PUBLISHED MISS | RECOMMEND2.55x | ~0.5x MOIC proxy (~$15M WW on $10M entered) | MISS | The honest miss: RT actual near 44 against a projected bear case of 67. Reception collapse of a prestige package is the model's known limitation and the reason bands are stated as bands, never as guarantees. |
BASIS OF THE REALIZED FIGURES
Realized figures are a convention proxy: worldwide gross divided by budget, times a release-strategy P&A multiplier. True equity MOIC is not public for any title shown; gross and budget are approximate public figures. The same convention is stated in every Oracle report.
RULESET AT TIME OF RUN
The five 2022 and 2023 fixtures ran under ruleset S6-MATCH-7. Hereditary ran under S6-MATCH-8. Earlier figures are never restated under a later ruleset. Each entry keeps the stamp it was run with, exactly as every report is read against the engine that produced it.
ALL ENTRIES ARE BACKTESTS AGAINST RELEASED FILMS. ORACLE WAS NOT COMMISSIONED BY ANY PARTY INVOLVED IN THESE PRODUCTIONS.
BAND COVERAGE ACROSS SIX FIXTURES IS EVIDENCE OF PROCESS, NOT PROOF OF ACCURACY.
CURRENT ENGINE: S6-MATCH-8 · SEE METHODOLOGY FOR WHAT THE STAMP DESIGNATES.
ONE ENGINE. ONE VERDICT.
A forecasting product that only demonstrates its wins is a marketing product. The miss above is published at the same size as the hits, and it stays there.
YOUR REPORT IS NEVER ADDED TO THIS LEDGER.
It stays private. It stays yours.
ROW-LEVEL ISOLATION · EXPIRING SIGNED LINKS · DELIVERED ONLY TO YOUR ACCOUNT
Your row is never written here. Run it yourself, privately.
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